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Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020
 
Paulette has generally changed little overnight.  The hurricane
still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally
evident in satellite images.  Convective banding remains well
organized, especially to the north of the center.  The satellite
intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data,
the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt.
 
The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and
relatively warm water beneath the cyclone.  However, a steady
weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves
over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind
shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3.  However,
some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day
sooner than that.  The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of
the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models.
 
Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion
estimate is northeastward at 17 kt.  The hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days
as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  After
a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and 
then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut 
off deep-layer low.  There are some differences in the models on 
how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on 
the overall scenario.  The NHC track forecast lies roughly between 
the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 37.0N  60.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 38.9N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 41.3N  50.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 43.7N  44.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 45.4N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 46.0N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 44.9N  34.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0600Z 41.6N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0600Z 38.7N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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