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Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
 
Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and 
recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane 
was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed 
ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be 
going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current 
intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally 
decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90 
kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this 
assessment.
 
Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either
through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or
redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have
an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity
guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast
has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity
consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical
characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as
a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming
fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS 
simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition 
sooner.
 
Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as
predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system
will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few
days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even
southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone
encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however
it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains
in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based
heavily on TVCN and HCCA.

The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data 
from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 35.7N  62.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 37.4N  59.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 39.8N  54.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 42.3N  48.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 44.6N  41.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 46.0N  37.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 45.8N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0000Z 43.0N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0000Z 39.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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