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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020
 
Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection
is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little
signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will
expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the
diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like
further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the
intensity estimate.
 
If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief
window for further strengthening before an expected increase in
southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity
should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later
this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to
restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low
expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance
at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a
category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker
over the weekend than currently forecast.
 
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and
therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette
should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back
toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds
and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high,
since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far
west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence
in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is 
based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.7N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 19.2N  45.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 19.9N  47.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 20.3N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 20.5N  50.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 20.7N  52.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 21.4N  53.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 23.5N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 26.5N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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