ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Nana Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Nana continues to weaken over 
land, with only a small area of convection remaining near and to 
the south of the low-level center.  It is estimated that Nana has 
weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, although as with the last 
advisory there are no observations near the cyclone's core and thus 
the estimate is rather uncertain.  Continued weakening is expected, 
and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it 
reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 12-24 h.  The global models 
continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to
re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low
to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water.  There is a 
possibility that a low pressure area will re-form over the 
Pacific in association with the remnants of Nana late this weekend 
or early next week, but the chances of re-generation to a tropical 
cyclone appear low at this time.
 
The initial motion is 255/12 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Nana should keep it moving on a westward to 
west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. 
The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous 
track and lies near the various consensus models,
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6
inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of
southeastern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 16.0N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/0600Z 15.5N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1800Z 15.0N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 14.7N  97.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN