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Hurricane Nana Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020
 
After the center of Nana nearly became exposed during the late
afternoon, a new burst of convection developed near and to the
south of the center which has resulted in strengthening this
evening.  Very recently received data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that Nana has become a
hurricane.  The plane has measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 72 kt to the north of the center, and peak SFMR winds
of 62 kt earlier this evening.  These data support an initial
intensity of 65 kt, making Nana the fifth hurricane of the 2020
Atlantic basin hurricane season.  Since Nana should make landfall
along the coast of Belize within the next several hours, little
additional strengthening is expected before the center crosses the
coast.  Rapid weakening will occur after landfall, and the new 12
through 36 hour intensity forecast reflects this.  The low-level
center is likely to dissipate over mountainous terrain within 48
hours, if not sooner.
 
Nana is moving just south of due west at about 265/14 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a
west-southwestward motion during the next day or so.  The guidance
enveloped has shifted slightly southward and the new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge will spread
onshore along portions of the coast of Belize within the Hurricane
Warning area through early Thursday.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Thursday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 16.8N  89.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0000Z 16.4N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 16.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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