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Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020
 
Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana
to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective
burst.  Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum winds remain near 50 kt and the central pressure
is near 998 mb.
 
The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana
toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of
the cyclone's life.  The new forecast track, which is changed only
slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass
north of the Bay Islands in about 12 h, then make landfall over
Belize in 18-24 h.  After that, a generally westward motion is
expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico.
 
The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light
northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall.  However,
the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur
before landfall.  The new intensity forecast follows this trend,
however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity
guidance.  While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is
expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it
makes landfall in Belize.  After landfall, the cyclone should
steadily weaken until it dissipates by the 60 h forecast time.
 
Observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that Nana remains a
rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending 60 n mi or less from the center.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Nana is expected to bring hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a
hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico by tonight.
 
3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 17.1N  84.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.0N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.8N  88.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 16.6N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z 16.5N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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