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Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020
 
Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little 
over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection 
overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly 
shear.  Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation.  
The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier 
scatterometer measurements.  If the lack of convection continues, 
Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today.  In 
any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough 
within a couple of days.

After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a 
rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt.  The system should turn toward the 
northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough 
within 36-48 hours.  The official forecast is somewhat faster than 
the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus 
predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 35.3N  58.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 35.6N  57.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z 36.5N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 38.1N  56.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 40.5N  54.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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