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Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020
 
The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has 
changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a 
sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the 
south of the surface circulation center.  Based on the earlier 
METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  Gradual 
weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the 
cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly 
shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt.  Large-scale models 
insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or 
less, and dissipate by Sunday morning.  The NHC forecast will, once 
again, reflect this scenario. 

It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred 
miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to 
move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt.  This binary 
interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an 
eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system 
downstream accelerates northeastward.  Afterward, a turn toward the 
northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an 
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high 
several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over 
the central Atlantic.  The official forecast is a little to the 
south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the 
various multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 35.4N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 35.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 36.3N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 37.5N  56.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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