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Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020
 
Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was 
classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning.  A shapeless 
deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the 
southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and 
the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the 
satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago.  Therefore, the 
initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt.  The large-scale 
models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show 
further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as 
soon as Saturday morning.  Because of Omar's resiliency in such a 
harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast 
shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, 
then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday.  
 
The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past 
24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer 
westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the 
central Atlantic.  This due east heading should continue through 
Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast
is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching 
mid-latitude frontal zone.  The official forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 35.9N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 35.8N  59.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 35.6N  57.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 36.2N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 37.8N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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