ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020
 
A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of 
Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the 
southeast of the exposed low-level center.  Any new convection that 
developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter 
lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial 
intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass 
showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. 
There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind 
shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to 
persist near Omar's center, and the depression should degenerate to 
a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement 
with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant 
low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching 
mid-latitude frontal system. 

Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a 
subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast 
through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn 
east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching 
mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very 
close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus 
aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 36.1N  64.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0000Z 35.7N  59.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 35.5N  58.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 35.9N  57.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 36.5N  56.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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