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Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020
 
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is
rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has
become quite ill-defined.  This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer
passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of
the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no
longer present.  Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30
kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective
satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The latest global
model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant
low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
suit.  Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than
Saturday evening.
 
Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt,
within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge
stretching east to west over the central Atlantic.  Omar should 
continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the 
global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward.  
Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in 
forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an 
approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic.  The 
NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous 
one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 36.1N  65.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 36.1N  63.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 36.0N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 35.7N  59.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 35.7N  57.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z 35.9N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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