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Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
north of Cancun to Dzilam to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday.  On the
forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  The center
will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the
northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.  The 
system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.  Additional strengthening is 
forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf 
of Mexico.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon
and will spread northward and westward within the warning area
Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch 
area by late Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
 
Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.  This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.
 
Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.
 
Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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