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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO
DZILAM.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  84.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  84.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N  85.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N  85.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N  86.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N  89.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N  91.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.7N  94.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  84.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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