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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO CANCUN MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  82.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  82.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N  83.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N  85.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N  86.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.8N  87.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N  89.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.7N  92.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.1N  94.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  82.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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