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Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep 
convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, 
a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the 
shear, there are indications that Kyle's winds have increased. A 
ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of 
Kyle's center. Although the observation was elevated, it still 
supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt.
 
Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the 
coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. 
The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough 
and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the 
day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday.
 
The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which 
is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face 
of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional 
strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes 
post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat 
uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical 
cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual 
weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and 
is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the 
week, if not sooner.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 39.0N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 39.8N  62.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 40.8N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 41.7N  54.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1200Z 42.2N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  18/0000Z 42.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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