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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  54.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  54.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  54.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N  56.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N  59.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N  61.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.9N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 27.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 30.6N  65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  54.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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