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Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this 
morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of 
the main convective area.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as 
high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the 
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt.  Based on these 
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.  The aircraft also 
reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center 
was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central 
pressure was near 1008 mb.

The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory, 
with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt.  Other than 
that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast 
track philosophy.  During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its 
remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the 
south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area.  After 
that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and 
north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high. 
The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly- 
clustered guidance and near the various consensus models.

Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to 
strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h.  This should 
cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now 
calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and 
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h.  Several global models forecast 
the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this 
remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially 
considering how small the closed circulation is.  There is a chance 
that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile 
environment after 72 h.  However, it is unclear at this time whether 
there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts.  However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 19.1N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 19.8N  61.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 21.0N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 22.3N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 23.8N  67.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 25.2N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 26.7N  69.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 29.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z 32.5N  64.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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