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Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020
Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of
Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area
of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical
wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial
intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the
circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to
provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed
circulation still exists.
The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt.
Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a
weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone
should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h.
Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected
to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the
higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed
significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast
track is very similar to the previous forecast.
Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after
12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern
Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of
a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening
due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h.
However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global
models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before
Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW