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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with 
deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the 
circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of 
winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this 
data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The 
persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for 
the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to 
remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This 
should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the 
depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative 
scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the 
convection dissipates.
 
The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the 
west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around 
a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion 
should continue until the system dissipates. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 18.6N  22.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.8N  23.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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