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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020
 
Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection
remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on
the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed
is kept 30 kt based on persistence.  It seems like the chance for
the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now 
moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass.  Thus weakening is
forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low
later today. 

The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course 
should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest 
around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward 
adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS 
model.  All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 
hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 17.8N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 19.2N  23.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0600Z 20.5N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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