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Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
...ISAIAS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island
Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.1
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in
forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast
through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the
coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina
within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then
move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the
coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the
northeastern United States by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow
weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas
and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) was observed at the St, Augustine Pier, Florida, and a
sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow station at the Jacksonville Beach
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:
Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.
Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.