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Hurricane ISAIAS (Text)


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BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020
 
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 73.3 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the
north-northwest.  On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight and move near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near or east of the Florida 
peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is 
expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.  
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of 
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos this 
morning.  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the 
southeastern Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain 
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated 
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream 
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with 
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban 
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern 
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated 
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained 
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Oct-2020 12:09:20 UTC