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HURRICANE ISAIAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0400 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDE THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  72.2W AT 31/0400Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  40SE  20SW  80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE  30SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE   0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  72.2W AT 31/0400Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  71.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N  73.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  30SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N  76.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE  40SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N  77.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N  79.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N  79.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.6N  76.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N  72.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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