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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND
THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  61.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  61.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  60.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N  64.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...220NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N  71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE  30SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N  74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N  76.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.3N  78.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  61.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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