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Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
 
Hanna continues to become better organized on satellite images, 
with an extensive area of cold cloud tops in both its Central Dense 
Overcast and in banding features over the eastern and southern 
parts of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are at 55 kt, but with the continued increase in organization 
over the past couple of hours, the current intensity is set at 60 
kt.  This is also in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak 
estimate from UW-CIMSS.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate Hanna later this morning which should 
provide a more precise intensity estimate.  Since Hanna should 
remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is conducive 
for strengthening up to landfall, the cyclone should become a 
hurricane very soon.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the 
model consensus.

The center is moving just slightly south of due west or around 
265/8 kt.  A mid-level subtropical high to the north of Hanna has 
built a little and this should result in a turn toward the 
west-southwest during the next 12-24 hours.  After landfall, the 
track guidance shows a continued west-southwestward motion until 
dissipation over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico.  
The official track forecast has been adjusted just a bit to the 
south of the previous forecast.  This is just north of the 
dynamical model consensus and just south of the latest ECMWF 
track.

Based on the new official forecast track, the Storm Surge Warning 
has been extended southward to Port Mansfield, Texas.
 
 
Key Messages
 
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas
coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning 
is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice 
given by local emergency officials.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from
Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in
effect.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area this morning.
 
3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of
southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.  These rains could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 27.0N  95.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 26.9N  97.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 26.5N  98.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/0600Z 25.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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