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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020
 
Gonzalo is looking very ragged, with a cloud field that more
resembles a tropical squall than a tropical storm. If Gonzalo still
has a well-defined center, it is located to the east of the primary
area of deep convection and is obscured by cirrus clouds. It is
possible that ASCAT data will provide more information on the status
of Gonzalo later this morning. For now, the intensity is held at 
35 kt based on overnight reconnaissance data, but it is possible 
that Gonzalo is no longer producing winds of that magnitude except 
in squalls not directly related to the system's circulation.
 
Gonzalo appears to have continued westward since the last advisory, 
with a somewhat uncertain forward speed estimate of 16 kt. As noted 
in the previous advisory, Gonzalo is not expected to gain much 
latitude today and should continue generally westward for the next 
day or so. Close proximity to land and unfavorable large-scale 
environmental factors should cause Gonzalo to weaken and open into a 
trough by late Sunday, if not sooner. No significant changes were 
made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts which both remain near 
the multi-model consensus.
 
Key Messages
 
1. Gonzalo is causing gusty winds across portions of the southern 
Windward Islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should 
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local 
officials.
 
2. Gonzalo is producing heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 10.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 11.0N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 11.7N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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