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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 90.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 90.1 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the
central Gulf of Mexico today, and will be near the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday.  Cristobal's center is then forecast to move
inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday.
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening
is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast.
Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42001, located in the central Gulf of
Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a 
wind gust of 45 mph (76 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and
Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft
Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft
Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late
Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:
 
Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast. Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash
flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams is possible
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
 
Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan...Additional 1 to 3
inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize, southern parts of Honduras and the Mexican state of
Oaxaca...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 12
inches.
 
Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El
Salvador...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm total amounts of
35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would
continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
TORNADOES: The potential for a brief tornado or two will gradually
evolve Saturday night across far Southeastern Louisiana.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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