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Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday and
move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. The
center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday
night and Friday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength
is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening
is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is
expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently
reported at an automated observing site in Ciudad del Carmen.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches
over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo,
Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts
of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches,
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of
Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.