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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A
STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  90.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  90.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  90.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N  90.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...170NE 170SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N  90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...230NE 210SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N  90.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.6N  90.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.6N  91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.0N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  90.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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