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Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little 
deep convection near the center.  The current intensity estimate is 
30 kt, although this may be generous.  Since the center should 
remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening 
could occur during the next 12-24 hours.  A re-intensification 
trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center 
moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then.  As noted earlier, the 
atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive 
for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some 
mid-level dry air.  There are a number of arc clouds noted in 
satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of 
drier air at mid-levels.  As in the earlier advisories, the NHC 
intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus.  Due to the 
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some 
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the 
northern Gulf coast.

The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic 
loop within a broad gyre.  Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal 
should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the 
subtropical ridge.  There has not been much change in the official 
track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical 
model consensus.  The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to 
the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track.  
This should not be considered as a significant change, however, 
especially for a broad cyclone such as this one.
 
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected 
in the official wind radii forecast.  This suggests that when the 
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may 
occur at a large distance from the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week.  The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador.  This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.
 
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s
center.  Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.5N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.4N  90.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/1800Z 20.1N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0600Z 21.9N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  06/1800Z 23.8N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  07/0600Z 25.6N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  07/1800Z 27.5N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  08/1800Z 31.0N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1800Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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