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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center
location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep
convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature
lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the
depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed
only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial
intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the
entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global
models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be
surprising if this happened much sooner.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but
based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite
fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be
steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the
north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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