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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a
tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that
the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In
addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near
the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing
well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at
25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little
more than 20 kt.

All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression
over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair
amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path.
This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains
embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break
out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is
expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not
sooner.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace
of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer
the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until
dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Latto

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