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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the
past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite
imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain
organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave
data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity
remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity.

Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm
sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model
guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a
remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact
that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it
opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the
previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in
agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to
no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its
remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Latto

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