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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep
convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm
activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals
that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with
no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately
did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little
indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt.
Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec
gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence
would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now,
just in case the system makes a comeback later today.

The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or
west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from
accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial
position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last
advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This
is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's
current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any
time during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z  9.6N 102.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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