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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has
not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of
curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still
producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its
center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already
have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain
contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not
yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment
remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so.

It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the
depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The
initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that
the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone
heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The
track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast
is essentially just an update of the previous advisory.

The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment
for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient
moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system
to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could
become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's
circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global
models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the
favorable environment so no change was made to the official
intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first
24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP
model thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z  9.2N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z  9.2N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z  9.4N 102.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z  9.6N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z  9.9N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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