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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north with a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated
on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight additional strengthening is
possible tonight, followed by weakening by early Sunday. Raymond is
predicted to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

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