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Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection
to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well
organized and there is no evidence of banding features.  A recent
ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated
from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to
around 30 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 30 kt.  Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already
increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become
quite strong within the next 24 hours.  As a result, weakening is
anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later
today or tonight.  The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36
to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California.

Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt.  A deep-layer
trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula
should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today.  After that time, Raymond or its remnants are
forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is
absorbed into the aforementioned trough.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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