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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the
center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main
convective mass.  The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds
to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of
strongest winds.  Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number.

The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be
closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the
cyclone.  The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later
today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight.  The SHIPS
model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent
in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the
west of the Baja peninsula.  Raymond is forecast to weaken to a
depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant
low shortly thereafter.  The cyclone is likely to dissipate within
3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for
continuity.

Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is
expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon.  A turn
to the north should occur later today, and a north to north-
northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone
is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest
and a ridge to the southeast.  Once Raymond weakens, it is
expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow.
The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a
westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is
again close to the center of the guidance envelope.

Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward
into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this
weekend.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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