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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several
hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the
eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm
that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the
inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is
kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through
tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm
water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large
bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is
expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough
is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California.
This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across
Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48
hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday.
One uncertainty in  the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond
will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula.  The official forecast calls for Raymond
to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these
winds may be to the east of the peninsula.  Subsequently, Raymond
is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear.  Forecast
guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some
variations in timing.  Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall
associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level
ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps
north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the
system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes
under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the
approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a
few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The
latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered
consensus track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

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