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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred
miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624
UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better
defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has
been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT
slightly under-sampled the strongest winds.

The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will
likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity
guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today,
but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond
is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of
the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have
tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there
is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure
when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of
the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through
tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond
moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous
NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official
forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and
FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

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