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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Recent satellite imagery indicates that there has been a slight
increase in convective banding associated with the depression
overnight. The deep convection has increased and become a little
better organized over the southeastern portion of the circulation,
however, the center remains near the northwestern edge of the
primary convective mass.  Earlier ASCAT data and the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support an
intensity of 30 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at that value.

The depression has about 36 h in which to strengthen while it
remains over SSTs of 28-29C and in generally low wind shear
conditions.  The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today, and the early portion of the intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid.  By 48 hours, a
significant increase in southwesterly shear is predicted by the
global models as a large mid- to upper-level trough digs southward
and cuts off to the west of the Baja California peninsula.  The
increase in shear should cause weakening, and the system is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low when it nears the southern portion
of the Baja peninsula in about 72 hours.  Dissipation should occur
shortly thereafter as the shear increases further.

Satellite fixes indicate that the depression is moving north-
northwestward or 335/5 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge should
continue during the next day or so.  After that time, the cyclone
should turn north-northeastward around the aforementioned trough to
the west of the Baja California peninsula. As the system weakens
and becomes vertically shallow by 72 hours, it is likely to turn
northward or north-northwestward before dissipating. The track
guidance has trended a little faster this cycle, and the new NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the
TVCE and HCCA consensus models.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days.  These rains could cause in life-threatening flash
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 13.5N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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