ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta San Telmo westward to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  On this
track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area today, and
move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm before it moves inland.  Rapid weakening
and dissipation is expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwest Mexico through Tuesday night.  This rainfall could produce
flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN