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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate
that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening
hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better
organized overnight.  Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at
least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and
based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models
indicate that the depression will move generally northward around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico.  This motion should
bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico
later today or early tonight.  The NHC track forecast follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields.

The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an
area of moderate easterly shear.  In fact, the center of the
depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the
convective mass.  Due to the shear and the very short time the
system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening
is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived
tropical storm later today.  Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly
weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall
and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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