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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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