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Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Dry air and southeasterly shear are taking their toll on Octave.
Small bursts of intermittent convection continue to the northwest of
Octave's center, and the lack of persistent deep convection over the
center is causing the low to gradually spin down.  The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests winds have
decreased to 30 kt, with even lower intensity estimates from SAB and
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Given that the overnight scatterometer missed the
system, and the fact it does take time to spin down these lows, the
initial intensity is lowered generously to 30 kt.

Octave will continue to be in a hostile environment with about 25 kt
of southeasterly wind shear and in the presence very dry air for the
next few days.  This should prevent any deep convection from
persisting over the cyclone long enough to maintain the current
vortex.  Thus, a gradual weakening trend should continue, and Octave
may become a remnant low by tonight.  Even after the system becomes
a remnant low, there could be occasional development of convection.
However, at this time it is not believed that this convection will
be sufficient enough to cause the cyclone to regenerate.  This
remnant low is expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period.

Octave is drifting northeast and it should remain in a weak flow
regime for the entire forecast period.  The official NHC forecast
shows a meandering motion for the next several days, and the
forecast track lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 11.5N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

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