ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm
formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection
redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past
few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity
remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models
indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the
continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is
still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The
new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more
hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low,
occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be
enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it
is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback.

Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow
tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its
south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical
guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will
dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical
over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON)
forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very
little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600
miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the
others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is
largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN