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Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight,
but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave
has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly
shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed
several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt.

Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of
270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for
the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected
throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about
100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between
the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which
resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3.

The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system
has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the
shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little
in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors
offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in
intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to
begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time
20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to
begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72
hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and
near the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z  9.9N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

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