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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...MORE RAIN TO COME FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 95.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 95.4 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today.  On this track, the disturbance is expected to move
inland over southeastern Mexico during the next several hours within
the watch area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance has some chance of becoming a tropical storm
before moving inland later today. Thereafter, weakening is
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A Mexican automated station in Salina Cruz recently reported a wind
gust of 42 mph (67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 20 inches
along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Jalisco.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across El Salvador and
southern Guatemala.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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