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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 93.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.1 North, longitude 93.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward motion is expected
over the next day or so.  On this track, the disturbance is expected
to move inland over southeastern Mexico later today within the watch
area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 20 inches
along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Guerrero.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across El Salvador and
southern Guatemala.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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