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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF OAXACA...
...MORE RAIN TO COME FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 96.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.2 North, longitude 96.2 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  On this track, the
disturbance is expected to move farther inland over southeastern
Mexico during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance has some chance of becoming a tropical storm
if the center can re-form along the coast later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico
from Chiapas to Jalisco, and 2 to 4 inches over southern Guatemala.
Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Mexico.
Rainfall in both Guatemala and Mexico could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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